empty
18.03.2025 11:36 AM
Positive Data from China and Rising Risk Appetite Support a Bullish Outlook for the Kiwi – NZD/USD Analysis

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has gained another strong bullish factor as the ANX Commodity Price Index recorded another solid increase in February, rising 3.0% month-on-month (m/m) and 14% year-on-year (y/y). If the trade war bypasses New Zealand, the country's trade balance will remain consistently in surplus, helping to stabilize the domestic economy faster and return to a growth trajectory.

This image is no longer relevant

Market participants interpreted the latest economic data positively, making the Kiwi the best-performing major currency on Monday.

The rally was supported by upbeat economic data from China, where retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment all exceeded forecasts. Another positive factor for NZD is the broad increase in risk appetite, as the potential for de-escalating geopolitical tensions has emerged.

On Wednesday evening, the final Q4 GDP report will be released, with the primary focus on private consumption trends, as this indicator reflects the recovery of consumer demand. If the data meets or exceeds expectations, NZD could receive another bullish signal.

Following the resignation of Adrian Orr as RBNZ Governor, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to take a more cautious, conservative approach, which is also supportive of the Kiwi—a potential rate cut may slow down. Overall, NZD has a chance to take advantage of favorable market conditions and continue its upward momentum.

Speculative positioning remains bearish, but the net short position on NZD slightly decreased by $134 million to -$3.026 billion over the reporting week. Short-term factors continue to support the Kiwi's rally, and the fair value estimate has accelerated upward.

This image is no longer relevant

Technical Outlook for NZD/USD

NZD/USD is attempting to extend its corrective rally, fueled by positive external factors, and has approached key technical resistance at 0.5839. A break above this level is likely, as this scenario appears more probable than another downside retracement.

The next resistance zone and upside target lies at 0.5920/40, but further gains depend on a combination of factors, primarily continued demand for risk assets.

Key support is at 0.5768, and any pullback to this level could be used as a buying opportunity. While the bullish momentum remains intact, it is driven primarily by external factors, meaning the duration of NZD/USD's rally will depend on how long the favorable external environment persists.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

GBP/USD Overview – May 7: Trump Didn't Get a Call from China, Had to Back Down

On Tuesday, while the euro remained stuck in a flat trend, the GBP/USD currency pair began a new upward move. The rally started on Monday, but during the U.S. session

Paolo Greco 03:35 2025-05-07 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – May 7: The Fed Meeting Becomes the Dollar's New "Headache"

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade strictly sideways on Tuesday. The broader flat market has now lasted for nearly a month, and in addition to that, the market seems

Paolo Greco 03:35 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Trade War as Part of Global Confrontation

Many may believe that the trade war initiated by Donald Trump is simply a tool to reduce the budget deficit and national debt. However, it becomes clear upon closer examination

Chin Zhao 01:06 2025-05-07 UTC+2

May FOMC Meeting: A Preview

We'll learn the results of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting on Wednesday. On one hand, it's a routine event with a predetermined outcome. On the other hand, the currency

Irina Manzenko 00:32 2025-05-07 UTC+2

The Euro Holds Its Ground

Trade wars matter more than politics. Friedrich Merz's proposal to revise Germany's fiscal brake rule laid the foundation for EUR/USD's upward trend. Theoretically, his failure to become chancellor should have

Marek Petkovich 00:32 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Australian Dollar Hits New Highs

The Australian dollar updated its five-month high against the USD at the start of the new week. NAB (National Australia Bank) revised several of its forecasts concerning the Australian economy

Kuvat Raharjo 00:32 2025-05-07 UTC+2

The Euro Ends Its Consolidation and Prepares to Rise Again

Inflation in the eurozone remained at 2.2% year-on-year in April, slightly above the expected decline to 2.1%. Meanwhile, core inflation rose from 2.4% to 2.7%, significantly exceeding the forecast

Kuvat Raharjo 19:08 2025-05-06 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The Japanese yen is attracting buyers following a recent decline, owing to its status as a safe-haven asset in times of uncertainty. The anticipated recovery of the yen is supported

Irina Yanina 18:47 2025-05-06 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The EUR/USD pair is struggling to establish a clear short-term direction, trading within a multi-day range as markets await decisive news from the upcoming FOMC meeting regarding the interest rate

Irina Yanina 11:05 2025-05-06 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the USD/CAD pair remains positive within a familiar range, without showing strong buying momentum. The strengthening of the U.S. dollar following a two-day decline is attributed to the positive

Irina Yanina 11:03 2025-05-06 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.