Analysis of Deals and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The 151.52 level test in the second half of the day coincided with the MACD indicator dropping significantly below the zero line, limiting the pair's downward potential, particularly during the U.S. holiday. For this reason, I chose not to sell the dollar. A second test of 151.52 occurred with the MACD in the oversold zone, leading to Scenario #2 for buying, but as seen on the chart, this did not yield significant results.

A sharp increase in Tokyo's Consumer Price Index (CPI) strengthened the Japanese yen and triggered a decline in the U.S. dollar. Tokyo's inflation, driven by higher energy and food prices, prompted market participants to revise their forecasts. Investors actively redirected funds into Japanese assets, strengthening the yen and putting additional pressure on the U.S. dollar.

Japan's unemployment rate remained stable, providing the BOJ with ample room for maneuver. Amid high inflation and steady employment, raising interest rates could be a logical step to curb price pressures. This decision might bolster confidence in Japan's economy and attract additional foreign investment. However, risks persist. Global financial markets remain volatile, and any changes in monetary policy could affect demand for Japanese exports. Investors are closely monitoring the BOJ's actions as well as economic indicators from other major economies, including the U.S. and EU.

With no clear signs of a reversal in the USD/JPY downtrend, the pair is likely to continue its decline. For intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: Plan to buy USD/JPY today at an entry point around 150.38 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 151.01 (thicker green line). At 151.01, exit purchases and open sell positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback. Given the downtrend, exercise caution with purchases.Important: Ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and starting to rise before buying.
• Scenario #2: Buy USD/JPY after two consecutive tests of 149.96, provided the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This should limit the pair's downward potential and may initiate an upward reversal. Growth to 150.38 and 151.01 is expected.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: Sell USD/JPY after breaking below 149.96 (red line), targeting a decline to 149.28. Exit short positions at 149.28 and open buy positions in the opposite direction, anticipating a 20–25 point pullback. Downward pressure on the pair may persist in the first half of the day.Important: Ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and starting to decline before selling.
• Scenario #2: Sell USD/JPY after two consecutive tests of 150.38, provided the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This should cap the pair's upward potential and may trigger a downward market reversal. Declines to 149.96 and 149.28 are expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Suggested price for placing Take Profit or locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Suggested price for placing Take Profit or locking in profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Pay attention to overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important for Beginners

Forex traders should approach market entry with caution. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. When trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can lead to rapid losses, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.

Successful trading requires a well-defined plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.