Analisis Forex & Kajian: 01.04.2025 - US stock market: bad news...

01.04.2025 09:13 AM

US stock market: bad news fully priced in

The S&P 500 had its worst quarter in three years. Investors are shifting capital from North America to Europe. Once-booming US tech stocks have collapsed. Major banks and respected institutions are raising the odds of a recession for the American economy. That's a lot of bad news for a broad stock index, isn't it? However, buying the dip towards the lower boundary of the sideways range at 5,500–5,790 has borne fruit — just in time for America's "Liberation Day".

Performance of US stock indices

Donald Trump's policies have caused turmoil not only in financial markets but also among the general public. According to the latest Associated Press poll, nearly 60% of Americans disapprove of the president's protectionist stance, and 58% are dissatisfied with his overall handling of the US economy. The market sell-off reflects investor skepticism, but the Republican leader remains undeterred. He insists the country must endure short-term pain to reclaim a golden era for America.

That "Liberation Day" will come on April 2, when the White House is set to announce new tariffs. According to Wall Street Journal sources, the president is weighing two options: blanket 20% import tariffs or tailored, reciprocal tariffs. The former could send another shock through financial markets, while the latter might calm nerves.

Following JP Morgan and Moody's Analytics, Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a US recession from 20% to 35%. Yet investors have found new reasons for optimism. After a massive sell-off in tech stocks, forward P/E ratios are now approaching historical averages. In other words, stocks are no longer overvalued, making them more attractive.

US tech sector P/E trends

The White House's new tariffs could also slow capital outflows from North America to Europe. A full-blown trade war would likely hit the EU harder due to its large trade surplus with the United States. Moreover, part of the capital shift was driven by a 4.6% gain in the euro against the dollar in the first quarter. As a result, European investors lost about 13% on US-listed assets.

According to Wells Fargo, the dollar's January-March slide was temporary. Looking ahead, tariffs and trade tensions could boost the greenback by 1.5% to 11%, with maximum gains expected if America's trade partners avoid a full-scale retaliatory response.

From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 has bounced off the lower boundary of the previously established 5,500-5,790 consolidation range. Long positions opened at the 5,500 level appear to be worth holding. A break above the resistance levels at 5,625 (pivot) and 5,670 (fair value) would allow for additional long positions.

Anda telah pun menyukai siaran hari ini

* Analisis pasaran yang disiarkan di sini adalah bertujuan untuk meningkatkan kesedaran anda, tetapi tidak untuk memberi arahan untuk membuat perdagangan.

Jika anda mempunyai sebarang soalan berkaitan kandungan, sila hubungi editorial-board@instaforex.com

Fundamental analysis

Marek Petkovich,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
© 2007-2025

Lebih banyak artikel daripada pengarang ini

Langganan E-mel

EURUSD

Euro vs US Dollar

Pilih carta masa

min

jam

hari

minggu

Mulakan dagangan

Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.

Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.

Artikel yang dicadangkan

XAU/USD. Analisis dan Ramalan

Trump Sedang Bermain Permainan di Mana Semua Pihak Rugi

Trump Amat Memerlukan Perjanjian dengan China

The Fed Memerlukan Lebih Banyak Masa untuk Menilai Situasi

Powell Tidak Perlu Bimbang

Pasaran Berkemungkinan Telah Melepasi Paras Terendah Penurunan Mereka (masih terdapat kemungkinan penurunan berterusan bagi EUR/USD dan GBP/USD)

Apa yang Perlu Diberi Perhatian pada 24 April? Analisis Peristiwa Fundamental untuk Pedagang Baharu

Gambaran Keseluruhan GBP/USD – 24 April: Tidak berjaya? Biarkan sahaja...

Gambaran Keseluruhan EUR/USD – 24 April: Adakah Segalanya Benar-benar Berkait dengan Powell?

Kiwi Berpotensi Tinggi untuk Terus Meningkat

Analisis terbaik